Since I teach in Northern Kentucky (right across the river), I know lots of Kentuckians. However, most of the ones I know well enough to have talked politics with are already Obama supporters.
Most elections (certainly this one) are influenced a lot more by who does and doesn't vote, than by people being convinced to pick one candidate vs. another.
I didn't need any polls to know Clinton would get in the mid to high 60s. A map of which counties Clinton had gotten 65 or better in until then showed a very clear swath that Kentucky and West Virginia showed up as two holes in. They were clearly both going to complete that map. Look at that map and you'll see how obvious and predictable this was. Real vote returns are a much better predictor than polls.
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Most elections (certainly this one) are influenced a lot more by who does and doesn't vote, than by people being convinced to pick one candidate vs. another.
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(Anonymous) 2008-05-20 09:49 pm (UTC)(link)Joel
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