Since I teach in Northern Kentucky (right across the river), I know lots of Kentuckians. However, most of the ones I know well enough to have talked politics with are already Obama supporters.
Most elections (certainly this one) are influenced a lot more by who does and doesn't vote, than by people being convinced to pick one candidate vs. another.
I didn't need any polls to know Clinton would get in the mid to high 60s. A map of which counties Clinton had gotten 65 or better in until then showed a very clear swath that Kentucky and West Virginia showed up as two holes in. They were clearly both going to complete that map. Look at that map and you'll see how obvious and predictable this was. Real vote returns are a much better predictor than polls.
Ha! Based on the 2-1 returns I'm seeing, I think Obama's problem consists of too many of those pesky "typical white people" in Kentucky. Plus it's so far from Illinois as compared to Arkansas, or something.
It's not "white people", it's Appalachian white Democratic primary voters. That is a group that has strongly preferred Clinton over Obama all the way from western New York to the Ozarks. If you look at a map of the country showing counties Clinton got 65% or better in, it's pretty much a swath from western NY to Texas, covering the Appalachians and Ozarks and then a little bit into Texas (into areas of Texas populated largely by people who came from the Appalachians).
I wonder if the pundits are gonna keep repeating that it's "white people" in general, today, given that Oregon is so overwhelmingly white (as are Iowa, Kansas, Vermont, Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, North Dakota...)
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Most elections (certainly this one) are influenced a lot more by who does and doesn't vote, than by people being convinced to pick one candidate vs. another.
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(Anonymous) 2008-05-20 09:49 pm (UTC)(link)Joel
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However... *laughs* At least I am voting, right?
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I wonder if the pundits are gonna keep repeating that it's "white people" in general, today, given that Oregon is so overwhelmingly white (as are Iowa, Kansas, Vermont, Maine, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, North Dakota...)
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